Housing Activity Remained Sluggish During October

Market Change Not Likely to be "Light Switch" Moment

KIRKLAND, WA, November 4, 2010 – Housing activity around Washington state remained lackluster during October, with brokers reporting year-over-year declines in pending sales. On a brighter note, prices on sales that closed last month showed signs of stabilizing, with eight counties showing price gains compared to 12 months ago.

"The change in the market will not be a 'light switch' moment," remarked NWMLS director Frank Wilson, branch managing broker at John L. Scott Real Estate in Poulsbo. He expects 2011 will be a little better than 2010, with 2012 likely to be a little better than 2011.

Northwest MLS members reported 5,653 pending sales (mutually accepted offers) during October, a drop of nearly 22 percent from the same month a year ago. Compared to September, brokers wrote 88 fewer transactions, a decline of 1.5 percent.

Broker-members are reporting upticks in activity in some geographic areas and in certain price segments.

While entry-level buyers dominated sales earlier in the year due to the tax credit, move-up buyers have a growing presence in the market, according to OB Jacobi, another NWMLS director. Commenting on October activity, Jacobi, the president of Windermere Real Estate Company, said during the first quarter, homes priced at $500,000 or more made up less than a quarter (23 percent) of all home sales in King County. Since mid-year, his analysis shows $500,000-plus homes have accounted for over a third of all sales (34 percent).

NWMLS members reported 4,072 closed sales during October, reflecting the slower pace of pending sales. Last month's closed sales, which include single family homes and condominiums, had a median selling price of $255,932. That area-wide figure is down about 5.2 percent from twelve months ago.

In King County, the median price for last month's sales of single family homes and condominiums (combined) was $350,000, about the same as the year-ago figure of $349,950. Seven other counties also reported price gains from a year ago. They include Clark, Ferry, Grant, Kittitas, Lewis, Mason, and Okanogan.

Inventory remained plentiful, despite the addition of fewer new listings during October than during the same month a year-ago.

Brokers added 8,212 new listings to the MLS system last month, including 7,039 single family homes and 1,173 condominiums. That total is down from a year ago, when members added 9,344 new listings.

With October's new listings, there were 39,677 active listings in the NWMLS database at month end, an increase of nearly 4 percent from the year-ago selection that totaled 38,159 listings.
Wilson noted there is considerable variation across the NWMLS service area when measuring the months supply of homes (a barometer of how long it would take for the entire inventory of active listings to sell given recent sales activity and assuming no new listings were to appear on the market).

In Kitsap County, for example, Wilson said listings in the Indianola and Gamblewood areas are selling quite well with roughly a 4-month supply of inventory. "On the other hand," he noted, "in the Hansville/Driftwood Key area in the northernmost part of the county, there is close to a 20-month supply."

"Buyers and sellers need to live in the now and not try to second-guess the market or when it will actually bottom out," Wilson suggested, adding the messages to sellers and buyers are unchanged.

Sellers need to be realistic, Wilson emphasized, noting on average 27 percent of listings sell within the first 30 days and 46 percent of listings either take more than six months or don't sell at all. "This is why it is critical to price your home correctly right out of the gate when it is being seen by the most buyers," he explained.

The advice to buyers has not changed either, according to Wilson. With interest rates low and inventory fairly abundant, prospective owners should be prepared to make an offer if they see an appealing house that has just been listed.

In a statement accompanying a report last week on existing home sales across the U.S., Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS®, said the housing market is in the early stages of recovery. "A housing recovery is taking place, but will be choppy at times depending on the duration and impact of a foreclosure moratorium. But the overall direction should be a gradual rising trend in home sales with buyers responding to historically low mortgage interest rates and very favorable affordability conditions," he said.

Northwest Multiple Listing Service, owned by its member brokers, is the largest full-service MLS in the Northwest. Its membership includes more than 24,000 brokers and agents. The organization, based in Kirkland, currently serves 21 counties in Western and Central Washington.

Statistical Summary by Counties: Market Activity Summary - October 2010

Oct 2010 Single Family Homes + Condos	LISTINGS		PENDING SALES	CLOSED SALES
	New Listings	Total Active	#Pending Sales	# Closings	Average Price	Median Price
King	3,331	13,135	2,194	1,589	$437,136	$350,000
Snohomish	1,301	5,455	968	579	$284,825	$260,000
Pierce	1,312	5,920	958	675	$237,740	$214,950
Kitsap	347	1,836	256	183	$275,199	$245,000
Mason	112	808	60	48	$197,462	$169,681
Skagit	172	1,166	123	76	$287,202	$220,000
GraysHarbor	135	975	70	61	$140,641	$121,500
Lewis	91	825	61	48	$160,953	$152,450
Cowlitz	107	656	64	45	$161,448	$149,900
Grant	92	622	50	44	$173,330	$165,500
Thurston	360	1,754	298	229	$239,201	$224,000
San Juan	34	461	10	16	$507,431	$425,000
Island	156	1,014	78	75	$342,676	$270,000
Kittitas	78	533	47	36	$250,683	$257,000
Jefferson	57	535	37	33	$302,230	$239,000
Okanogan	27	405	24	26	$171,761	$164,500
Whatcom	249	1,829	236	182	$276,694	$244,500
Clark	58	295	26	27	$223,323	$235,000
Pacific	45	406	30	26	$149,608	$145,000
Ferry	4	51	5	1	$285,000	$285,000
Clallam	65	462	23	33	$187,526	$187,000
Others	79	534	35	40	$219,510	$193,000
MLS TOTAL	8,212	39,677	5,653	4,072	$324,276	$255,932

4-County Puget Sound Region Pending Sales (SFH + Condo combined)
(Totals include King, Snohomish, Pierce & Kitsap counties)

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2000	3706	4778	5903	5116	5490	5079	4928	5432	4569	4675	4126	3166
2001	4334	5056	5722	5399	5631	5568	5434	5544	4040	4387	4155	3430
2002	4293	4735	5569	5436	6131	5212	5525	6215	5394	5777	4966	4153
2003	4746	5290	6889	6837	7148	7202	7673	7135	6698	6552	4904	4454
2004	4521	6284	8073	7910	7888	8186	7583	7464	6984	6761	6228	5195
2005	5426	6833	8801	8420	8610	8896	8207	8784	7561	7157	6188	4837
2006	5275	6032	8174	7651	8411	8094	7121	7692	6216	6403	5292	4346
2007	4869	6239	7192	6974	7311	6876	6371	5580	4153	4447	3896	2975
2008	3291	4167	4520	4624	4526	4765	4580	4584	4445	3346	2841	2432
2009	3250	3407	4262	5372	5498	5963	5551	5764	5825	5702	3829	3440
2010	4381	5211	6821	7368	4058	4239

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