Home affordability has returned to pre-housing-bubble levels in a growing number of U.S. markets over the past year, buoyed by several years of sustained price declines, according to data from Moody's Analytics.
The data track the ratio of median home prices to annual household incomes in 74 housing markets. By that measure, housing affordability at the end of September had returned to or surpassed the average reached between 1989-2003 in 47 of those markets. Most economists believe the housing boom began in 2003.
"Based on incomes, this is as affordable as it gets," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "If you can get a loan, these are pretty good times to buy."
But the bad news is that those price declines are leaving more borrowers underwater or in homes worth less than the amount owed.
During the housing boom, lax lending and speculation pushed house-price inflation far beyond the modest rise in household income. Nationally, the ratio of home prices to annual household income reached a peak of 2.3 in late 2005. But by last September, it had fallen to 1.6, well below the historical average of 1.9 between 1989 and 2003.
Most economists and housing analysts anticipate another 5% to 10% decline in prices before they reach bottom later this year or early next year. Housing demand remains weak because buyers are skittish about the economy and lending standards are tight.
Markets that now appear to be undervalued include Detroit, Las Vegas, Atlanta, and Phoenix. Even in such markets, high rates of foreclosure and underwater borrowers should keep downward pressure on prices. "They're undervalued, but they're going to get even more undervalued," said Mr. Zandi.
Home prices still remain overvalued by both measures in several markets, including Seattle, Charlotte, New York and Portland, Ore.Measuring home prices to income is not the only way economists measure housing affordability. They also examine the relationship between house prices and rents. By the price -to-rent ratio, or the price of a typical home divided by the annual cost of renting that home, prices are fairly valued—or undervalued—in around 20 markets. Nationally, the price-to-rent ratio stood at 14.85 at the end of September, above the 1989-2003 average of 12. The data suggests pockets of the country have further to fall.
Based on rents, "it's still not a slam dunk to buy" in those markets, said Mr. Zandi. He said housing markets appear to be most overvalued in the Pacific Northwest, a region that was among the last to enter the housing downturn. Historical measures also show prices are still high along the Northeast corridor from Baltimore to Boston.
The cost of owning a home looks less affordable based on rents than it does on incomes, in part, because rents also fell throughout 2009 and the first half of 2010. As rents rise, that could tip the scale back in favor of owning in some areas.
Of the 74 markets, Baltimore appears to be the most overvalued housing market. By contrast, prices in Cleveland, the most undervalued market, have returned to 1991 levels based on the price-to-rent ratio.
Historical measures comparing rents and incomes to home prices provide a useful gauge of affordability, but they can be imperfect at measuring how close different markets are to recovering from a bubble. After a severe housing downturn, home prices rarely stop falling once they reach equilibrium level.
Some areas will stay undervalued for years as they deal with a glut of foreclosures and a paucity of demand. Historical trends show that housing could remain undervalued in many markets for six to seven years, according to housing economists at Capital Economics.
"It's become cheaper to buy than to rent" in Phoenix, said Jon Mirmelli, a real-estate investor in Scottsdale, Ariz., who is renting out foreclosed homes. "But the question is: can you qualify for a loan?"
At the same time, some areas that appear to be overvalued relative to historic norms, such as Washington, D.C., may not completely return to pre-crisis levels thanks to structural changes in the economy that support higher prices.
Thursday, March 24, 2011
Friday, March 18, 2011
New Foreclosure Statistics for Washington
Foreclosure Filings—Notice of Default filings are the first step in the foreclosure process. Notice of Trustee Sale filings set the date and time of an auction, and serve as the homeowner's final notice before sale.
Foreclosure Outcomes—After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be Cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal requirement to re-file the notice after extended postponements. Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank will place the opening bid. If a 3rd party, typically an investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the property will be Sold to 3rd Party; if not, it will go Back to the Bank and become part of that bank's REO inventory.
Foreclosure Inventories—Preforeclosure inventory is an estimate of the number of properties that have had a Notice of Default filed against the property, but have not yet been Scheduled for Sale. The Scheduled for Sale inventory indicates those properties that have had a Notice of Trustee Sale filed, but have not yet been sold or had the sale cancelled. The Bank Owned (REO) inventory indicates the number of properties that have been sold Back to the Bank at the trustee sale, and which the bank has not yet resold to another party.
Foreclosure Bids—The Published Bid is the amount listed in the Notice of Trustee Sale and is typically the balance due at the original date of sale. The Opening Bid is the bank's starting bid at auction, and is often discounted from the Published Bid. The Winning Bid is the highest bid received at auction and reflects the amount at which the bank or 3rd party purchased the foreclosure.
Foreclosure Discounting—This chart compares the winning Bid Amount of properties sold at trustee sale to both the outstanding Loan Amount, and the current Market Value. Banks place an Opening Bid for each property and if a 3rd Party does not make a higher bid, the property will be sold Back to Bank (REO) for the Opening Bid amount. Properties Sold to 3rd Parties will typically have Winning Bids with deeper discounts to both Loan Amount and Market Value as only low Opening Bids will attract investor interest.
Time to Foreclose—The average number of days between the filing of the Notice of Default and the final sale at auction for foreclosure sales that occurred during the specified month. Time to Resell—The average number of days between the final sale at auction and when the property was resold by the bank or 3rd party.
Filings By Est. Market Value—The number of foreclosures that have received either a Notice of Default or Notice of Sale, shown in columns arranged by the estimated market value of the property in foreclosure.
Filings By Year Built—The number of foreclosures that have received either a Notice of Default or Notice of Sale, shown in columns arranged by when the property was built.
Foreclosure Outcomes—After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be Cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal requirement to re-file the notice after extended postponements. Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank will place the opening bid. If a 3rd party, typically an investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the property will be Sold to 3rd Party; if not, it will go Back to the Bank and become part of that bank's REO inventory.
Foreclosure Inventories—Preforeclosure inventory is an estimate of the number of properties that have had a Notice of Default filed against the property, but have not yet been Scheduled for Sale. The Scheduled for Sale inventory indicates those properties that have had a Notice of Trustee Sale filed, but have not yet been sold or had the sale cancelled. The Bank Owned (REO) inventory indicates the number of properties that have been sold Back to the Bank at the trustee sale, and which the bank has not yet resold to another party.
Foreclosure Bids—The Published Bid is the amount listed in the Notice of Trustee Sale and is typically the balance due at the original date of sale. The Opening Bid is the bank's starting bid at auction, and is often discounted from the Published Bid. The Winning Bid is the highest bid received at auction and reflects the amount at which the bank or 3rd party purchased the foreclosure.
Foreclosure Discounting—This chart compares the winning Bid Amount of properties sold at trustee sale to both the outstanding Loan Amount, and the current Market Value. Banks place an Opening Bid for each property and if a 3rd Party does not make a higher bid, the property will be sold Back to Bank (REO) for the Opening Bid amount. Properties Sold to 3rd Parties will typically have Winning Bids with deeper discounts to both Loan Amount and Market Value as only low Opening Bids will attract investor interest.
Time to Foreclose—The average number of days between the filing of the Notice of Default and the final sale at auction for foreclosure sales that occurred during the specified month. Time to Resell—The average number of days between the final sale at auction and when the property was resold by the bank or 3rd party.
Filings By Est. Market Value—The number of foreclosures that have received either a Notice of Default or Notice of Sale, shown in columns arranged by the estimated market value of the property in foreclosure.
Filings By Year Built—The number of foreclosures that have received either a Notice of Default or Notice of Sale, shown in columns arranged by when the property was built.
Seattle Metro Area Market Report
The Puget Sound is seeing a slow decline in prices, but it continues to be better than many areas of the country.
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
HOUSING ACTIVITY DURING FEBRUARY GIVES GOOD REASON FOR OPTIMISM
Housing activity during February continued to reflect the downside of distressed properties with fewer sales and lower prices than a year ago. Nevertheless, brokers believe there are reasons for optimism when taking a closer look at the numbers in the latest report from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
NWMLS members reported 5,986 pending sales of single family homes and condominiums in its market area, which covers 21 counties in Western and Central Washington. That total is down about 9.2 percent from a year ago, but it rose 11 percent from January. Last month’s volume of pending sales (mutually accepted offers) was the highest in six months, falling slightly below the August 2010 total of 6,037.
“I'm anticipating sales to be soft through April as compared to last year when a rush of buyers came into the market to take advantage of the tax credit, which expired April 30, 2010,” said OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate Company and a member of the Northwest MLS board of directors.
Noting a new year usually means new inventory, Jacobi commented on the smaller selection. Both the total number of new listings added to inventory and the total number of active listings are down from year-ago figures.
The number of new listings shrunk nearly 27 percent from a year ago, while the total number of active listings at month end was off 9.4 percent compared to twelve months ago.
Jacobi attributes the drops to distressed properties and the influence they are having on sellers. Sellers are reluctant to compete with the prices of distressed properties, he explained, and are holding off on putting their homes on the market. As a result, buyer choices have shrunk. That could bode well for some.
(Note: A distressed property is a dwelling that is in danger of foreclosure or that is in the process of being foreclosed due to a default under the terms of a mortgage.)
Some sellers of non-distressed properties are experiencing a stronger demand. “It’s not unusual for sellers in neighborhoods close to the city to get multiple offers,” Jacobi remarked. He cited the example of a home in Ballard with an asking price of more than $800,000 that drew seven offers last month, and sold for more than the asking price.
Overall, the median price for homes and condos that sold last month was $240,000, down about 7.7 percent from a year ago when the median selling price was $260,000. Five counties reported increases, with three of them – Grant, Kittitas and Jefferson – reporting double-digit gains.
In King County, the median selling price for last month’s completed transactions was $320,000, down about 6.8 percent from a year ago. For the four-county Puget Sound region, last month’s median price for single family homes and condos that sold during February was $262,250.
Brokers point to distressed properties as a major reason for depressed prices.
Jacobi said his company’s tracking showed distressed properties accounted for 37 percent of single family home sales in King County in February as compared to 30 percent a year ago. Most of that growth was from sales of bank owned properties, he noted.
Distressed properties continue to drag down home prices, Jacobi remarked. “Since they can sell for 30-to-40 percent less than non-distressed homes, we expected a price drop. In Windermere’s analysis, if you take out the distressed sales for February, the median home price jumps from $334,000 to $390,000.”
Copyright © 2011 Northwest Multiple Listing Service
NWMLS members reported 5,986 pending sales of single family homes and condominiums in its market area, which covers 21 counties in Western and Central Washington. That total is down about 9.2 percent from a year ago, but it rose 11 percent from January. Last month’s volume of pending sales (mutually accepted offers) was the highest in six months, falling slightly below the August 2010 total of 6,037.
“I'm anticipating sales to be soft through April as compared to last year when a rush of buyers came into the market to take advantage of the tax credit, which expired April 30, 2010,” said OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate Company and a member of the Northwest MLS board of directors.
Noting a new year usually means new inventory, Jacobi commented on the smaller selection. Both the total number of new listings added to inventory and the total number of active listings are down from year-ago figures.
The number of new listings shrunk nearly 27 percent from a year ago, while the total number of active listings at month end was off 9.4 percent compared to twelve months ago.
Jacobi attributes the drops to distressed properties and the influence they are having on sellers. Sellers are reluctant to compete with the prices of distressed properties, he explained, and are holding off on putting their homes on the market. As a result, buyer choices have shrunk. That could bode well for some.
(Note: A distressed property is a dwelling that is in danger of foreclosure or that is in the process of being foreclosed due to a default under the terms of a mortgage.)
Some sellers of non-distressed properties are experiencing a stronger demand. “It’s not unusual for sellers in neighborhoods close to the city to get multiple offers,” Jacobi remarked. He cited the example of a home in Ballard with an asking price of more than $800,000 that drew seven offers last month, and sold for more than the asking price.
Overall, the median price for homes and condos that sold last month was $240,000, down about 7.7 percent from a year ago when the median selling price was $260,000. Five counties reported increases, with three of them – Grant, Kittitas and Jefferson – reporting double-digit gains.
In King County, the median selling price for last month’s completed transactions was $320,000, down about 6.8 percent from a year ago. For the four-county Puget Sound region, last month’s median price for single family homes and condos that sold during February was $262,250.
Brokers point to distressed properties as a major reason for depressed prices.
Jacobi said his company’s tracking showed distressed properties accounted for 37 percent of single family home sales in King County in February as compared to 30 percent a year ago. Most of that growth was from sales of bank owned properties, he noted.
Distressed properties continue to drag down home prices, Jacobi remarked. “Since they can sell for 30-to-40 percent less than non-distressed homes, we expected a price drop. In Windermere’s analysis, if you take out the distressed sales for February, the median home price jumps from $334,000 to $390,000.”
Copyright © 2011 Northwest Multiple Listing Service
Friday, March 4, 2011
Motivated buyers returning to the housing market
Dramatic increases in open house activity and shrinking inventory are fueling optimism among members of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Commenting on the just-released MLS report on January's housing activity, one director stated, "There is a strong belief in the industry that the worst is behind us and we can look forward with confidence."
Darin Stenvers, managing broker at John L. Scott in Bellingham, who made that comment, also noted consumers are gaining confidence and buyers may be seeing what they believe is the bottoming of the market. "I'm very optimistic about the housing market for 2011 and the buyers and sellers should be as well," he exclaimed.
Year-over-year pending sales were down somewhat, the volume of new listings declined more than 23 percent, sales prices continued to slip, but the number of closed sales increased slightly across the 21 counties in the Northwest MLS service area.
Last month's pending sales lagged totals for the same month a year ago, but only by 186 units system- wide, a decline of about 3.3 percent. Northwest MLS director Matt Deasy, the broker at Windermere Real Estate/East in Bellevue, said he considered anything within 5 percent of a year ago when tax incentives were boosting sales a "home run."
Members reported 5,393 pending sales (mutually accepted offers) of single family homes and condominiums during January. That compares to 5,579 pending sales for the same period a year ago, and marked a big gain from both January 2009 (4,353 pending sales) and January 2008 (4,499 pending sales).
"I expect sales to be soft through April when compared to last year since first quarter sales volume was artificially inflated by the rush to take advantage of the tax credit that expired on April 30," said OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate Company. "A more apples-to-apples assessment of sales will be to compare first quarter this year with first quarter 2009," he suggested.
Closed sales rose a modest 2.1 percent from a year ago, increasing from 3,142 transactions to 3,207 sales. Prices on those completed sales were down about 6.3 percent. The overall median price for last month's closed sales of single family homes and condominiums was $243,500, which compares to the year-ago selling price of $259,903. For single family homes (excluding condominiums) the median selling price was $250,000, down about 5 percent from a year ago; for condos, last month's sales had a median price of $200,000, down 16.7 percent from twelve months ago.
Only four counties (Clallam, Cowlitz, Kitsap, and Okanogan) reported year-over-year price gains.
In King County, the median sales price on last month's sales was $333,500, a drop of 4.7 percent from twelve months ago when it was $350,000.
Brokers attribute part of the price drop to sales of distressed homes (in general, meaning homes under foreclosure or impending foreclosure).
"Distressed properties are making up an increasingly greater share of sales than a year ago, and that trend is expected to continue," observed Jacobi. Noting the sales price for distressed properties could be 20-to-30 percent less than for normal sales, he said "it's no surprise that a greater percentage of low-priced distressed properties is pulling down the median price."
Whether considering a property classified as distressed or a conventional listing, house-hunters can choose from 32,647 active listings in the Northwest MLS system at the end of January. That selection is 4.7 percent smaller than a year ago when there were 34,256 properties listed with member-brokers.
Not nearly as many newly listed homes were offered for sale last month compared to twelve months ago. MLS members recorded 8,556 new listings, which included 7,167 single family homes and 1,389 condominiums. The combined total is down nearly 24 percent from the same month a year ago when members added 11,206 new listings to inventory.
MLS director Bobbie Petrone Chipman said overall, January was a positive month around Pierce County, where her office is located. Noting that area experienced a 27 percent reduction of new listings, a 2.4 percent increase in pending sales and a 10.8 percent jump in closed sales, Petrone Chipman, co-managing principal broker at Coldwell Banker Bain Tacoma/Puyallup, said the month reflected "a bit more balance as we dip our toe into the new year."
Deasy also expects more balance, with sales more evenly distributed during the year, unlike 2010 when sixty percent of their sales occurred in the first half of the year. He also predicts closed sales will increase year over year, while at the same time pending sales might decrease year over year. This is the result of a higher percentage of pending sales actually closing, he explained, citing various factors. "Banks are better at short sales, brokers are better at short sales, appraisal issues are less frequent, and lending standards are becoming more stable."
Based on anecdotal reports of open house traffic, brokers are hopeful of upticks in sales.
"The buyer activity at open houses in the close in Seattle neighborhoods has increased dramatically in the past month, said Northwest MLS director Mike Skahen. "If there were more good new listings coming on the market there would be more sales," he suggested.
Skahen, the owner/broker at Lake & Co. Real Estate in Seattle, believes the shortage of new listings is causing an increase in multiple offers. As an example, he said a small Green Lake townhouse project that had been on the market for more than four months with no offers finally had one unit sell a few weeks ago. Last weekend four offers came in on another unit. "I have not seen buyers this motivated in three years," he remarked, adding, "Sellers should not wait for spring flowers to bloom to put their homes on the market as they usually do because there is much less competition now than there will be soon."
Industry leaders have recommendations to benefit both sellers and buyers.
Accurate pricing is paramount. "Sellers are learning there is a small window of opportunity to have consumers sees their home before ruling it out and moving on," suggested Stenvers.
"My advice to buyers in today's market is to get pre-approved prior to starting their home search in order to avoid any delays that might result from the new lending standards process," said J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate." This way," he explained, "buyers are ready to act quickly when they do find a home on which to make an offer."
As for sellers, Scott said pricing and presentation have never been more important. "Pricing must be comparable with the other properties that have recently sold in their local area and the home must be in pristine show condition from day one."
MLS director Pat Grimm, owner/broker at Windermere Real Estate/Capitol Hill, detected some hesitancy to list properties now. Distressed properties sell for less, but buyers face uncertainty and a long timeframe, he explained, noting the large percentage of distressed properties on the market has resulted in an interesting side effect: sellers of non-distressed properties are having an advantage.
"On one hand, I'm seeing sellers that are hesitant to bring their listings onto the market and compete with the price of short sale properties," Grimm commented. On the other hand, he said buyers are looking at all the inventory and, because of the complications of purchasing distressed properties, are favoring properties that are not short sales or bank owned.
In Seattle, Grimm said the sweet spot is homes priced $400,000-500,000, in good shape that are not distressed. "They appeal to both first-time buyers and downsizers," he reported, citing two examples:
A Capitol Hill home went on the market at $450,000, received seven offers and sold in a week for significantly more than asking price. In the second example, a View Ridge listing priced at $499,000 had 25 groups through an open house in a two-hour span. It has a view and a great location above the Burke-Gilman trail. "Both homes were in the $400-$500,000 price range, well maintained, and not distressed."
Several other NWMLS directors commented on the impact of distressed properties:
* "We still have the better part of the next five years to work through short sales and bank owned property but this is a start," commented Frank Wilson, branch managing broker at John L. Scott Real Estate in Poulsbo. He described January 2010 as an anomaly due to the tax credit, and said even though last month was down in many respects compared to last year, it better reflects the true market. "It is good to start a new year off without any government incentives and is hopefully the start of returning to normal."
* Some owners are opting to rent their homes as the market recovers. As demand increases and rents rise, investors are returning, said Stenvers. Also emerging is a new group of renters – past owners who lost their home to foreclosure or short sale, he noted, adding, "These renters are willing to sign long-term contracts so they can get their credit rating repaired." For example, Stenvers said his office recently listed a rental. The renters were a professional couple in the midst of a short sale in Florida. "They are looking at a very long term commitment to renting to help them save money and recover from their loss."
* "Buyers are reluctant to look at distressed properties not because of the characteristics of the property, but because of the process," said Grimm. He called the long delays with lenders regarding the sale of distressed properties "a major choke point." Grimm acknowledged there has been significant progress with the banks trying to figure out the situation, but stated, "We're still a long way from making it buyer-friendly."
Figures from the National Association of Realtors® show distressed homes rose to 36 percent of sales of existing homes in December, up from 33 percent in November and 32 percent a year ago. Such homes are typically discounted by 10 to 15 percent, according to NAR research.
Commenting on the volume of distressed homes on the market, Windermere's Jacobi said, "Hopefully new regulations requiring banks to speed up the sales process for distressed homes will help move that inventory more quickly."
Statistical Summary by Counties: Market Activity Summary - January 2011
Darin Stenvers, managing broker at John L. Scott in Bellingham, who made that comment, also noted consumers are gaining confidence and buyers may be seeing what they believe is the bottoming of the market. "I'm very optimistic about the housing market for 2011 and the buyers and sellers should be as well," he exclaimed.
Year-over-year pending sales were down somewhat, the volume of new listings declined more than 23 percent, sales prices continued to slip, but the number of closed sales increased slightly across the 21 counties in the Northwest MLS service area.
Last month's pending sales lagged totals for the same month a year ago, but only by 186 units system- wide, a decline of about 3.3 percent. Northwest MLS director Matt Deasy, the broker at Windermere Real Estate/East in Bellevue, said he considered anything within 5 percent of a year ago when tax incentives were boosting sales a "home run."
Members reported 5,393 pending sales (mutually accepted offers) of single family homes and condominiums during January. That compares to 5,579 pending sales for the same period a year ago, and marked a big gain from both January 2009 (4,353 pending sales) and January 2008 (4,499 pending sales).
"I expect sales to be soft through April when compared to last year since first quarter sales volume was artificially inflated by the rush to take advantage of the tax credit that expired on April 30," said OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate Company. "A more apples-to-apples assessment of sales will be to compare first quarter this year with first quarter 2009," he suggested.
Closed sales rose a modest 2.1 percent from a year ago, increasing from 3,142 transactions to 3,207 sales. Prices on those completed sales were down about 6.3 percent. The overall median price for last month's closed sales of single family homes and condominiums was $243,500, which compares to the year-ago selling price of $259,903. For single family homes (excluding condominiums) the median selling price was $250,000, down about 5 percent from a year ago; for condos, last month's sales had a median price of $200,000, down 16.7 percent from twelve months ago.
Only four counties (Clallam, Cowlitz, Kitsap, and Okanogan) reported year-over-year price gains.
In King County, the median sales price on last month's sales was $333,500, a drop of 4.7 percent from twelve months ago when it was $350,000.
Brokers attribute part of the price drop to sales of distressed homes (in general, meaning homes under foreclosure or impending foreclosure).
"Distressed properties are making up an increasingly greater share of sales than a year ago, and that trend is expected to continue," observed Jacobi. Noting the sales price for distressed properties could be 20-to-30 percent less than for normal sales, he said "it's no surprise that a greater percentage of low-priced distressed properties is pulling down the median price."
Whether considering a property classified as distressed or a conventional listing, house-hunters can choose from 32,647 active listings in the Northwest MLS system at the end of January. That selection is 4.7 percent smaller than a year ago when there were 34,256 properties listed with member-brokers.
Not nearly as many newly listed homes were offered for sale last month compared to twelve months ago. MLS members recorded 8,556 new listings, which included 7,167 single family homes and 1,389 condominiums. The combined total is down nearly 24 percent from the same month a year ago when members added 11,206 new listings to inventory.
MLS director Bobbie Petrone Chipman said overall, January was a positive month around Pierce County, where her office is located. Noting that area experienced a 27 percent reduction of new listings, a 2.4 percent increase in pending sales and a 10.8 percent jump in closed sales, Petrone Chipman, co-managing principal broker at Coldwell Banker Bain Tacoma/Puyallup, said the month reflected "a bit more balance as we dip our toe into the new year."
Deasy also expects more balance, with sales more evenly distributed during the year, unlike 2010 when sixty percent of their sales occurred in the first half of the year. He also predicts closed sales will increase year over year, while at the same time pending sales might decrease year over year. This is the result of a higher percentage of pending sales actually closing, he explained, citing various factors. "Banks are better at short sales, brokers are better at short sales, appraisal issues are less frequent, and lending standards are becoming more stable."
Based on anecdotal reports of open house traffic, brokers are hopeful of upticks in sales.
"The buyer activity at open houses in the close in Seattle neighborhoods has increased dramatically in the past month, said Northwest MLS director Mike Skahen. "If there were more good new listings coming on the market there would be more sales," he suggested.
Skahen, the owner/broker at Lake & Co. Real Estate in Seattle, believes the shortage of new listings is causing an increase in multiple offers. As an example, he said a small Green Lake townhouse project that had been on the market for more than four months with no offers finally had one unit sell a few weeks ago. Last weekend four offers came in on another unit. "I have not seen buyers this motivated in three years," he remarked, adding, "Sellers should not wait for spring flowers to bloom to put their homes on the market as they usually do because there is much less competition now than there will be soon."
Industry leaders have recommendations to benefit both sellers and buyers.
Accurate pricing is paramount. "Sellers are learning there is a small window of opportunity to have consumers sees their home before ruling it out and moving on," suggested Stenvers.
"My advice to buyers in today's market is to get pre-approved prior to starting their home search in order to avoid any delays that might result from the new lending standards process," said J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate." This way," he explained, "buyers are ready to act quickly when they do find a home on which to make an offer."
As for sellers, Scott said pricing and presentation have never been more important. "Pricing must be comparable with the other properties that have recently sold in their local area and the home must be in pristine show condition from day one."
MLS director Pat Grimm, owner/broker at Windermere Real Estate/Capitol Hill, detected some hesitancy to list properties now. Distressed properties sell for less, but buyers face uncertainty and a long timeframe, he explained, noting the large percentage of distressed properties on the market has resulted in an interesting side effect: sellers of non-distressed properties are having an advantage.
"On one hand, I'm seeing sellers that are hesitant to bring their listings onto the market and compete with the price of short sale properties," Grimm commented. On the other hand, he said buyers are looking at all the inventory and, because of the complications of purchasing distressed properties, are favoring properties that are not short sales or bank owned.
In Seattle, Grimm said the sweet spot is homes priced $400,000-500,000, in good shape that are not distressed. "They appeal to both first-time buyers and downsizers," he reported, citing two examples:
A Capitol Hill home went on the market at $450,000, received seven offers and sold in a week for significantly more than asking price. In the second example, a View Ridge listing priced at $499,000 had 25 groups through an open house in a two-hour span. It has a view and a great location above the Burke-Gilman trail. "Both homes were in the $400-$500,000 price range, well maintained, and not distressed."
Several other NWMLS directors commented on the impact of distressed properties:
* "We still have the better part of the next five years to work through short sales and bank owned property but this is a start," commented Frank Wilson, branch managing broker at John L. Scott Real Estate in Poulsbo. He described January 2010 as an anomaly due to the tax credit, and said even though last month was down in many respects compared to last year, it better reflects the true market. "It is good to start a new year off without any government incentives and is hopefully the start of returning to normal."
* Some owners are opting to rent their homes as the market recovers. As demand increases and rents rise, investors are returning, said Stenvers. Also emerging is a new group of renters – past owners who lost their home to foreclosure or short sale, he noted, adding, "These renters are willing to sign long-term contracts so they can get their credit rating repaired." For example, Stenvers said his office recently listed a rental. The renters were a professional couple in the midst of a short sale in Florida. "They are looking at a very long term commitment to renting to help them save money and recover from their loss."
* "Buyers are reluctant to look at distressed properties not because of the characteristics of the property, but because of the process," said Grimm. He called the long delays with lenders regarding the sale of distressed properties "a major choke point." Grimm acknowledged there has been significant progress with the banks trying to figure out the situation, but stated, "We're still a long way from making it buyer-friendly."
Figures from the National Association of Realtors® show distressed homes rose to 36 percent of sales of existing homes in December, up from 33 percent in November and 32 percent a year ago. Such homes are typically discounted by 10 to 15 percent, according to NAR research.
Commenting on the volume of distressed homes on the market, Windermere's Jacobi said, "Hopefully new regulations requiring banks to speed up the sales process for distressed homes will help move that inventory more quickly."
Statistical Summary by Counties: Market Activity Summary - January 2011
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